Alberta Housing Records 27,000 Starts in Calgary, Faces 2026 Slowdown

Calgary Leads Alberta with Record 27,000 Housing Starts in 2025

Calgary emerged as a frontrunner in Alberta's housing market, recording over 27,000 housing starts in 2025, a significant portion of the province's over 53,000 starts, as reported by CityNews Calgary. This surge marked a 14% increase from the previous year, signaling robust growth driven by high demand and governmental support. The city, alongside Edmonton, which saw over 21,000 starts, contributed to Alberta leading the nation in per capita housing starts. However, this record-setting pace is expected to slow in 2026, as experts anticipate a more balanced market due to factors like slowing population growth and economic uncertainties.

Experts predict Alberta's housing market slowdown in 2026.

National Housing Market Sees 5.6% Increase in Starts in 2025

Across Canada, housing starts climbed by 5.6% to nearly 260,000 in 2025, according to CityNews Calgary. Alberta's contribution was remarkable, as the province played a pivotal role in this national uptick. The construction boom in cities like Calgary and Edmonton drove this growth, influenced by favorable economic conditions and a surge in population. While Alberta's numbers were a highlight, other regions also experienced increases, albeit at a slower pace, indicating variances in regional market dynamics.

Predictions for 2026: Moderation in Housing Starts Expected

Heading into 2026, a moderation in Alberta's housing start numbers is anticipated. The New Homes Alberta forecast aligns with this expectation, predicting a year of balance. This adjustment stems from several factors, including the slowing influx of migrants and economic policies like tariffs. The potential impacts of the federal GST rebate remain uncertain, adding a layer of unpredictability. Yet, experts foresee the market moving towards a more sustainable growth path, with modest price appreciation between 3-5% across the province.

Price Declines Anticipated in Row and Apartment Homes

With the projected easing of supply pressures in 2026, price declines are expected, particularly in the row and apartment home segments. This shift towards a buyer's market will contrast with the seller-favored conditions experienced in previous years. According to CREB®, 2025 saw a transition towards more balanced market conditions, and this trend is likely to continue. The inventory of row and apartment homes is rising, with supply levels approaching a healthy 3-4 months in Calgary.

Calgary and Edmonton: Diverging Affordability and Trends

While both Calgary and Edmonton experienced robust growth in housing starts, their affordability and market trends diverge. Edmonton remains one of Canada's most affordable urban centers, as per the New Homes Alberta report. In contrast, Calgary saw notable declines in home prices, with a nearly 5% drop year-over-year in December 2025, the steepest in nine years, according to the Calgary Herald. This disparity highlights different regional dynamics, with Edmonton potentially offering more investment opportunities in the near term.

Future Implications for Investors and Developers

The anticipated slowdown in Alberta's housing starts in 2026 presents both challenges and opportunities for investors and developers. As inventory levels rise and the market shifts towards balance, strategic investments in specific sectors such as purpose-built rentals and new development communities may yield promising returns. Maintaining flexibility and staying informed about policy changes, like potential adjustments to the federal GST rebate, will be crucial. Additionally, monitoring the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions, projected to hold or slightly decrease to around 2.5%-2.75% by year-end 2026, will provide further insights for making informed investment decisions. RealEstateAbroad.com analysis suggests investors focus on areas with strong demographic growth and infrastructure development to maximize returns.

Conclusion: Navigating Alberta's Evolving Housing Landscape

As Alberta's housing market transitions from its 2025 highs to an expected slowdown in 2026, investors and stakeholders must adapt to the evolving conditions. The predicted moderation offers a respite from the rapid growth and provides an opportunity for strategic long-term planning. By understanding regional trends and staying informed about economic and policy shifts, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of Alberta's housing market and capitalize on emerging opportunities. RealEstateAbroad.com will continue to provide insights and updates to guide investors through this dynamic landscape.